The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has recently updated its shopping basket, which is used to measure UK inflation.

The ‘basket’ provides a fascinating insight into the changes in UK consumer tastes, trends and lifestyles. The 2026 basket reflects 760 goods and services and a further shift towards healthy living. Alcohol-free beer and houmous are among the latest items added. Together with pet grooming, to reflect care treatments for dogs beyond the services offered at vets.

Caravans were already in the basket, but motorhomes have now been added. Also included are dashcams reflecting the growing number of security products being used by drivers. Amongst the items removed are premium bottled lager bought in pubs and restaurants, along with sheets of wrapping paper, with consumers now buying rolls of wrapping paper instead.

Some of the changes also reflect the new method of data collection by the ONS. It will now use real-time supermarket scanner data for more than half of the grocery market information on a billion products sold each month. Scanned data will now be obtained from some 300 million price points compared to a manual process where prices were previously checked on 25,000 items in stores by ONS inspectors.

However, while the ONS is continually improving the quantity and quality of data used to measure inflation, unfortunately the actual rate of inflation can be heavily influenced by events outside the control of the UK. The conflict in the Gulf has pushed oil and gas prices much higher, which is expected to feed through into higher prices for UK consumers and higher inflation. The Bank of England had previously expected inflation to drop towards its 2% target by the end of 2026 and markets had anticipated at least two further interest rate cuts each of 0.25%.

However, markets are now pricing in that interest rates could now rise in 2026 if the conflict in the Gulf is prolonged. Housing and household services currently represent over 31% of the inflation basket and energy bills are forecast to jump by 20% in July. Transport is the third largest category, alongside restaurants and hotels at 11%, with both sectors energy dependent.

Little wonder the Bank of England is sounding more cautious!

For investors, the Gulf conflict will continue to overhang markets, but those businesses with pricing power that can pass on higher energy costs should be better placed to navigate current market volatility.

What have we been watching?

The US-Iran conflict remains a fast-moving situation. Key developments last week include Iran’s rejection of the US 15-point peace proposal, Trump citing positive ongoing talks with unnamed officials, and Iran-backed Houthi militants joining the conflict over the weekend. Trump subsequently openly floated the idea of a military operation to extract Iran’s uranium and whether the US could seize the Kharg Island export hub, raising fears of a new front in the war.

With many senior Iranian officials having gone underground and are avoiding all electronic communications to evade targeted assassinations (recall the Israeli pager attack). It is unclear whether any single diplomat in Tehran actually speaks for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – the people who control the weapons – so it is increasingly difficult to see how the conflict ends.

While back-channel negotiations are reportedly underway in Pakistan, progress remains opaque. Compounding this, Iran has reportedly insisted on negotiating exclusively through JD Vance, reflecting a deep distrust of the broader Trump administration.

In the absence of concrete confirmation from all parties, markets have largely stopped listening to Trump’s positive rhetoric. Previously, it wasn’t necessarily that markets believed Trump, but rather that they read it as a signal of him capitulating – reflecting increased likelihood of a “TACO” moment (Trump Always Chickens Out).

The S&P 500 is now down for five consecutive weeks for the first time since 2022, and with no clear end to the conflict in sight, investors remain fearful of a fresh escalation. As of Friday, the Nasdaq Composite entered correction territory, dropping by over 10% from its October 2026 record high.

Bond markets remain nervous but appear to be showing some signs of stability, with US 2-year and 10-year Treasuries flat on the week, yielding 3.9% and 4.4% respectively – pulling back from their 8-month highs on Friday. UK 2-year and 10-year gilts have shown similar behaviour, yielding 4.5% and 5.0%, respectively, meaningfully higher than what Rachel Reeves would have budgeted for. Overnight index swaps ahead of the next ECB meeting in April currently price a 47% chance of a cut – the first time in over a week it has fallen below 50%.

Brent crude has opened at $115/barrel, up 15% on the week following the Houthi escalation over the weekend, while EU gas is slightly lower at -2.5% to €55.50/MWh.

Shell’s CEO has warned that Europe could face fuel shortages as soon as April, with supply issues already emerging in parts of Asia.

Finally, only in the UK! We have previously observed the UK’s embarrassing track record when it comes to infrastructure projects relative to other countries. HS2 is a prime example. The latest news is that HS2 high-speed trains could be made to run slower than initially planned to keep costs down. Why build it then? You couldn’t make it up if you tried!

The post A Sobering Time first appeared on Alpha Portfolio Management.

Three weeks into the war in the Gulf and there is a deepening impression that Trump has entered the US into a conflict with no clear aims or strategy.

Trump is under mounting pressure at home. His voter appeal is waning as nearly half of Americans hold him responsible for the surge in gasoline prices triggered by the US war with Iran. Trump must find an exit ramp to avoid pain in the midterm elections in November.

Meanwhile, the world must deal with the economic fallout from the conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. While attention has focused upon oil and gas prices, a number of industries are watching the price of sulphur, which has jumped by 35% since the start of the conflict. The surge has exposed the fragility of supply chains that are built around the Gulf, which accounts for 45% of the world’s sulphur exports. Sulphuric acid is used in leaching to separate and recover metals such as copper, nickel and uranium. The disruption to sulphur supplies through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to have an impact on copper production. Semiconductor manufacturers also use sulphuric acid to clean wafers.

However, there is now a growing risk that the conflict could escalate and create a global food crisis.

The fertiliser industry is the biggest user of sulphur, accounting for 60% of demand, while there have also been price spikes in urea and ammonia, which are both critical ingredients of fertiliser. A prolonged conflict and ongoing disruption to Gulf shipping would feed into higher food production costs and inflation. The conflict in the Gulf comes as peak fertiliser season approaches.

It was not that long ago that global supply chains faced disruption from attacks on shipping in the Red Sea by Iranian backed, Yemen-based Houthi rebels. While attention remains focused on the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s economy and global supply chains also remain at risk from disruption to shipping in the Bab al Mandab Strait off Yemen. This accounts for 12% of global oil tanker traffic.

The world is still hoping for a swift resolution to the crisis in the Middle East, as a prolonged conflict would be very painful indeed.

What have we been watching?

Another nervous start to the week for markets as events in the Gulf risk escalating further. Has Trump bitten off more than he can chew? Last week, all four central banks – the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan – kept interest rates on hold and markets sat on their hands watching developments in the Gulf. However, market expectations have rapidly shifted from anticipating interest rate cuts from some of the central banks to fearing the possibility of interest rate hikes.  

Market sentiment improved late last week as Trump said he was considering ‘winding down’ military operations and suggested that responsibility for policing the Strait of Hormuz would be transferred to other countries. However, over the weekend, Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran must ‘fully open, without threat, the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours from this exact point in time.’ He warned that failure to do so would result in the US ‘hitting and obliterating’ Iran’s power plants. Iran responded by saying it would not only close the Strait of Hormuz but also target ‘all energy, information technology and desalination infrastructure belonging to the US and the Israeli regime in the region.’

Increased risk aversion has seen global government bond yields rise. The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 4.38% at the end of last week and has nudged higher this morning. The last time that the US Treasury yield hit this level was following Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement and the Greenland spat. On both occasions Trump did blink, so if the US Treasury yield becomes entrenched around these levels will it influence Trump’s actions in the Gulf and influence the length of the conflict with Iran? As we write Trump has just posted on Truth Social saying that following ‘good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of hostilities’ that he has ‘instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five- day period.’  

Iran’s Foreign Ministry has subsequently issued a statement saying ‘We deny what President Donald Trump said regarding negotiations taking place between the US and Iran.

In the UK, PM Sir Keir Starmer is holding a ‘Cobra’ emergency meeting to discuss the cost-of-living crisis and the rise in energy prices. Energy consultancy Cornwall Insights has forecast that a typical annual household energy bill in the UK could go up by 20% in July. Clearly this would not be good for the economy or the inflation outlook. Markets have already moved in a little under three weeks from expecting two interest rate cuts of 0.25% in 2026 by the Bank of England to over 0.75% of rate hikes! Equally bad news for Chancellor Rachel Reeves is that the conflict in the Gulf has pushed government bond yields higher. The UK 10-year Treasury yield climbed to almost 5% last week, the highest level since 2008!            

Brent oil opened above $113 this morning following Trump’s comments over the weekend but has fallen 12% to $98 following his latest post to halt attacks on Iran for a five-day period.

Finally, as part of an anti-counterfeiting move and following public consultations, the Bank of England intends to depict British wildlife on its next set of £5, £10, £20 and £50 notes. This has already sparked a backlash from some politicians, with Reform’s Nigel Farage calling the decision to replace Sir Winston Churchill with a picture of a beaver ‘absolutely crackers’. However, will the Bank of England take note?

The post Creating a bit of a stink first appeared on Alpha Portfolio Management.

The conflict in the Gulf has left markets attempting to assess which countries are likely to face the biggest economic shock.

It appears that Europe and Asia will suffer a bigger blow than the US, which will be partly cushioned by its large domestic energy sector, it being the world’s largest oil producer. By contrast, Europe and Asia are reliant on energy imports, particularly gas.

Oil and gas prices have spiked on fears that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed to ‘unfriendly’ tankers and that Iran will continue its attacks on the production facilities of neighbouring Gulf states. Higher commodity prices, if sustained, will drive up inflation, curb household spending power and weaken economic growth in countries across the world. Central banks may be forced to end their interest rate-cutting cycle or even tighten monetary policy. Some governments may also face extra fiscal strain if they seek to insulate households from higher energy bills.

Some analysts are now forecasting that the UK could see inflation hit 3%-4% by the end of 2026, compared with previous forecasts of 2%. Likewise, Eurozone inflation could increase by more than 0.5%. Not surprisingly, UK gilt yields have risen because of the uncertainty, which is bad news for the Chancellor trying to balance the books.

By contrast, US inflation may only rise by 0.2%. This is because over the last 20 years, the US has been transformed into the biggest producer of oil and gas in the world due to the shale revolution. This will partially shield US consumers, whereas European and Asian gas prices have spiked. In the US, the gas price has only inched up. A lack of export capacity will limit American producers’ ability to export gas and so keep a lid on US gas prices. However, US consumers will not be so protected in oil, where the market is more global. The oil price surge and higher US gasoline prices pose a risk for Trump and threaten to exacerbate the US affordability crisis ahead of the mid-term elections.

In Asia, China, India, Japan and South Korea are all big importers of oil and gas. China imports approaching 75% of its crude oil consumption from the Gulf and via the Strait of Hormuz and, despite sanctions, purchases 90% of all Iran’s oil exports.

Everything depends on the length of conflict in the Gulf and whether the US is able to either end Iran’s ability to attack neighbouring Gulf state oil facilities or make the Strait of Hormuz secure for oil and gas tankers. Markets still fear a prolonged conflict might push Brent oil back above the previous peaks seen in 2008 and 2022.

Meanwhile, Russia looks to be a big winner, having been given the chance to tighten its grip on the energy market at the expense of Gulf states that are unable to export their oil. A temporary relaxation of US oil sanctions is making Russia $150m a day in extra revenue from its oil sales. This is not good news for Ukraine or NATO.

The UK has North Sea oil and gas reserves, but on which topic PM Sir Keir Starmer has been strangely quiet. Perhaps he is looking over his shoulder at another of his leadership rivals, Ed Miliband, who continues to sing the praises of renewable energy?

What have we been watching?

Events in the Middle East continue to overshadow risk assets and as we write this morning, market turmoil is showing no sign of easing. At one point, Brent crude prices were up another 2% to $105, building on their rise of over 40% during the past two weeks. European gas prices were up 4% early this morning and are now up 74% over the past month. 

The latest rise in Brent oil comes despite the release of a record amount of oil from the IEA strategic oil reserve. Up to 400m barrels of oil are to be released, which would be equivalent to between 20 and 25 days of lost oil production from the Gulf states. The latest spike follows US bombing raids on Iran’s Kharg Island, which is particularly significant because 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports are shipped from there. Trump said he had chosen not to destroy Kharg Island’s oil infrastructure but said he would consider it if Iran interfered with the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran has continued to carry out missile and drone strikes on the oil and gas infrastructure of neighbouring Gulf states. Iran’s foreign affairs minister apologised to fellow Gulf states but was subsequently slapped down for doing so by members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.

The conflict in the Gulf now seems to be shifting to how the US opens the Strait of Hormuz with no vessels appearing to pass through it over the weekend. Trump is trying to co-ordinate an international response, although there appears to have been a mixed response so far. He has warned NATO it faces a ‘very bad future’ if it fails to assist and has said he could delay a summit with China’s Xi Jinping if China does not help unblock the Strait. Trump is also reported to have dispatched a US Marine expeditionary force to the Gulf, raising the prospect of some land-based attack.

Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts to end the conflict do not sound encouraging. Over the weekend, Trump said, ‘Iran wants to make a deal, and I don’t want to make it because the terms aren’t good enough yet.’ However, Iran’s foreign minister said, ‘We don’t see any reason why we should talk with Americans.’ Nevertheless, India’s foreign minister suggested that diplomacy may be one way to partially open the Strait of Hormuz. This followed news that Iran had agreed to allow two Indian-flagged gas tankers to pass through the Strait.

Aside from the conflict in the Gulf, markets will this week be watching central banks, with the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Bank of England all due to hold meetings. All of them have a very complex backdrop to deal with shaped by geopolitical risk, volatile energy prices and unclear inflation dynamics.

Finally, in a gold rush, always invest in picks and shovels! US private capital giant KKR is targeting a ten-fold return on a potential multibillion-dollar sale of a company that provides cooling equipment for datacentres. Nearly 3,000 datacentres are under construction or planned in the US, adding to the 4,000 existing sites. Cool IT Systems was set up in 2001 to produce cooling systems for gaming computers but then used this technology to support AI infrastructure. What a cool idea!

The post Dire Straits of America first appeared on Alpha Portfolio Management.

Are the knives out for PM Sir Keir Starmer?

On a weekend of heightened global geopolitical tensions, closer to home, political risk is on the rise.

Whilst domestic politics has been somewhat overshadowed by events in the Gulf, PM Sir Keir Starmer has recently been forced into making yet another embarrassing U-turn, this time on the delay to local council elections in May. The government was forced to cave in ahead of an imminent legal challenge from Reform UK.

Last week Labour lost the ‘safe seat’ of Gorton and Denton in a by-election. The decision by the Labour Party NEC to block Andy Burnham standing and the renewed scandal surrounding Peter Mandelson following a further release of Epstein files appear to have fatally weakened Starmer’s standing with MPs, the broader Labour Party and ultimately voters. When confidence is lost, it is hard to get it back and he may not survive the loss in the Gorton and Denton by-election followed by a poor showing in the May local elections.

Betting markets now price in over a 70% chance that he does not survive 2026 as PM!

If the party loses faith in Starmer, markets will have to consider the alternative candidates, including Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner, Andy Burnham and Ed Miliband, the majority of whom are more left-leaning. This might be a worse outcome for the UK economy and stock market. However, a new PM would find their room for manoeuvre constrained by having to stick largely to the manifesto that the party was elected on and, more importantly, by the steadying hand of the bond market.

While there is nothing to stop a new Labour PM coming back for more tax rises, this would not sit well with the UK electorate.

So, recent tax increases together with the constraints of the bond market may prevent a ‘worse case’ scenario for investors from a shift to the left. However, if there were to be a protracted leadership contest, then it would likely weigh on consumer, business and domestic market sentiment in the short term. Markets hate uncertainty, but politicians should have learnt lessons from PM Liz Truss and that ultimately bond markets tend to emerge as the winner.

Meanwhile, is the Gorton and Denton by-election also the nail in the coffin of Britain’s traditional two-party political system?

What have we been watching?

2026 is only two months old, yet more mayhem as markets have to contend with the latest crisis in the Middle East.

Markets generally had a strong February, and the FTSE 100 hit a record high, as did Japan ‘s NIKKEI index, although US equities edged lower on AI worries, concerns about the US regional banking system and the US Supreme Court striking down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs. Things have now been thrown up in the air by the US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran over the weekend and the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Reflecting the uncertainty, gold hit a record high, government bond yields initially moved lower, while defence contractors and oil producers rose in value.

Trump has said that the US could keep up its campaign against Iran for ‘four to five weeks’ but said he is open to lifting sanctions against the country if its new leadership were pragmatic. However, the current message from Iran is that it will not negotiate with the US. Meanwhile, with US military fatalities, how will this sit with US voters ahead of the mid-term elections? What message will this also send to Putin over Ukraine and China regarding Taiwan? The world remains a dangerous place!

Oil prices have leapt this morning with Brent oil up 10% to $80. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed by Iranian strikes on oil tankers. About 20% of the world’s oil supplies are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz and with shipping piling up on either side, traders have been scrambling for supplies of crude oil. OPEC+ has agreed to boost output by 206,000 barrels of oil a day, but the majority of this still needs to be shipped through the Gulf.

Of equal concern to markets is the disruption to LNG supplies. A halt in gas supplies through the Strait of Hormuz could be comparable in scale to the curtailment of Russian gas supplies to Europe. Both Asia and Europe are the main consumers of LNG. Airlines and energy-intensive industries have seen large share price falls this morning. Markets have no clear view yet of how long and how successful the US and Israeli air campaign against Iran will be and whether it will succeed in achieving regime change. How effective will it be in destroying Iran’s nuclear, ballistic missile and drone manufacturing capacity? Tourism-related sectors have also seen share price falls this morning as Iran continues to target neighbouring countries in the Gulf.

While the world is not as exposed to oil prices as in the 1970s, it is more dependent on LNG. Central banks will be wary of the impact of higher energy prices for the global inflation outlook should the Middle East conflict prove to be prolonged. UK and European gas prices have leapt over 24% this morning. Readers may recall that Ofgem lowered its April price cap by 7% for April following a mild winter, so how will events in the Middle East impact household energy bills beyond this?

Looking back at last week, which now feels like a long time ago, the main investment theme continued to be AI disruption. AI continues to overshadow markets, albeit this has been overtaken by events in the Middle East. Nonetheless, it remains a concern stoking irrational thinking in the US. For example, this was reflected in the now infamous memo from Citrini Research, which outlined a hypothetical scenario in which AI adoption drove the US unemployment rate into double digits by mid-2028! Meanwhile, AI chip giant Nvidia delivered quarterly earnings that once again failed to deliver the positive surprise that US investors have become accustomed to dragging down the Mag 7 and NASDAQ index.

Finally, talking of politics, UK youth unemployment recently rose above 16%. Almost 1 million youngsters aged between 16 and 24 are either not in education, employment or training.  A very sad statistic and not great for the UK economy. It’s also a hot potato for politicians!

The post Leaning to the left first appeared on Alpha Portfolio Management.

You can always rely on politicians to throw a spanner in the works.

Trump’s radical reversal of America’s climate policy has forced car manufacturers to make a U-turn away from EVs (electric vehicles). The cancellation of EV credits in the US and Trump’s determination to further roll back regulations to cut vehicle emissions have led carmakers to lower EV sales expectations to just 5% of new US car sales – about half the current level. 

At the same time, Western companies are facing increased competition from Chinese rivals such as BYD. China’s BYD moved ahead of Tesla last year in sales of EVs. However, BYD is now having to check in the rear-view mirror at a lesser-known domestic rival, Leapmotor, which is producing no-frills, low-cost EVs that are proving a hit with Chinese consumers. Ominously, Leapmotor is following BYD’s lead and is now turning to international markets with ambitions to sell 4 million cars globally. Last year it produced 600,000 cars, double that of 2024, which was four times higher than in 2023.

The reversal in EV ambitions is estimated to have resulted in a hit of at least $65bn for the western car industry last year alone. Stellantis, the owner of Peugeot and Fiat recently took a $26bn charge to scrap some EV models. Ford took a $19.5bn write-down as it cancelled its electric F-150 pickup truck while General Motors has taken a $6.7bn hit. Meanwhile, Honda has warned it is reassessing its EV strategy and has ended its EV partnership with General Motors in the US. Even EV star Tesla has suffered a significant fall in sales due to competition from China but possibly also due to a backlash against Elon Musk’s politics.

The shortcoming of Western carmakers has possibly been their failure to offer EVs that meet drivers’ price and range expectations, while investment in charging infrastructure has also been lacking. Some will no doubt be alarmed by Leapmotor’s no-frill EV offering. Stellantis has entered into partnership with Leapmotor in Europe. Will this prove to be a complementary EV offering within the Stellantis range, or could it lead to cannibalisation with customers potentially switching their cars to the Chinese brand?

The structural see-saw underway in the global car industry should be alarming for politicians, as it remains a very important part of the manufacturing sector and a substantial employer in many economies.

What have we been watching?

The US Supreme Court threw a spanner in Trump’s tariff strategy which, once again, leaves markets facing major uncertainties! Meanwhile, markets moved on from AI worries to fears about events in the Middle East. Despite this uncertainty, the equal-weighted S&P 500 index (which adjusts for the US mega-tech companies) hit a record high, as did European equities including the FTSE 100.    

The US Supreme Court ruled, by a 6-3 margin, that Trump’s use of IEEPA tariffs was unconstitutional. In the immediate aftermath, Trump had said he would pursue a 10% global tariff under Section 122 authority but over the weekend this increased to 15%. However, under Section 122 these tariffs can only remain in place for 150 days, so until the end of July, after which congressional approval would be required to extend them. The problem is that this would be just over three months before the US midterm elections and if a handful of Republicans in either chamber were reluctant to support these tariffs, which are in effect a consumer tax, then they would lapse. Would Trump then look to similar legal authorities such as Section 232 (national security) or Section 301 (unfair trade practices) to re-establish more durable tariffs? However, these would probably be narrower in scope and subject to legal challenge. In summary, nobody can really make sense of what is happening right now with growing uncertainty for America’s trading partners and how this will pan out, although it does feel as if the overall effective tariff rate will come down in 2026. Ironically, Brazil and China will be the big winners from Trump’s new 15% tariffs, while other countries he has in the past singled out for running huge surpluses with the US, such as Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia, will also be better off. By comparison, American allies such as the UK, EU and Japan will be worse off.   

American military resources continue to build in the Middle East ahead of talks later this week between the US and Iran in Geneva. Trump is questioning why Iran has not yet ‘capitulated’ in the face of America’s military buildup according to US special envoy Steve Witkoff. American media suggest Trump is considering an initial targeted strike against Iran in the coming days, which could be followed by a larger attack if Iran does not give in to America’s nuclear demands.

In the UK, there was some good news for Chancellor Rachel Reeves as January tax receipts created a £30.4bn surplus. Meanwhile, UK unemployment climbed to 5.2% while youth unemployment reached 16.1%. However, the softness in the UK jobs market increased market hopes for further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England. The chances of a 0.25% interest rate cut in March increased to 79%.  

European markets were propelled to record highs by better than expected ‘flash’ PMI business activity data. The euro area composite PMI improved to 51.9 following three consecutive months of decline. Within the data, activity in Germany improved to 53.1 reflecting the fiscal stimulus package.

In the US, economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 was weaker than expected at 1.4%. Core PCE inflation was higher than expected in December. This has brought the annual rate of core PCE – the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred measure of inflation – back up above 3% for the first time in ten months. As a result of this and concerns about America’s fiscal outlook given the US Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs, markets dialled back expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2026.

Brent oil climbed above $71 as traders continued to study the US military build-up in the Middle East ahead of talks with Iran.

Finally, trouble brewing? Scottish craft beer company Brewdog, which was founded in 2007 has appointed AlixPartners to ‘support a structured and competitive process to evaluate the next phase of investment for the business.’ Last year, Brewdog lost £37m as it undertook a number of restructuring measures. Yet another sign, if one was needed, of just how tough it has been for the pub trade. Not good news either for those investors who participated in Brewdog’s earlier ‘Equity for Punks’ scheme. As Clint Eastwood, (Dirty Harry) said, ‘Do you feel lucky, Punk?’

The post A car-tastrophe first appeared on Alpha Portfolio Management.

Despite markets recently hitting all-time highs, concerns over the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) have sparked a sharp sell-off in computer software companies and data providers. This has been driven in part by the launch of new AI tools.

As a result of US technology disruptor Anthropic launching the smart business tool, Claude, SaaS (Software-as-a-Service) providers were initially hit. However, this has subsequently extended to wealth management companies with the launch of an AI financial planning strategy product from Altruist. Price comparison site operators were also hit last week as Insurify launched an AI platform in the US to find better car insurance deals.

Meanwhile, markets are having to consider the vast sums that many of the biggest US tech companies are having to invest in building their AI capacity. While some of these are sitting on enormous cash piles, the skyrocketing investment in AI is seeing capital spending outstrip cash flow even amongst some of the most profitable businesses. Alphabet, Google’s parent company, Amazon and Facebook owner Meta all recently surprised investors with the scale of their AI investment.

For example, Amazon announced plans to invest $200bn in 2026 alone in expanding its AI capacity, including AI chips and datacentres. The worry is that some of the world’s most cash-generative businesses could start to see their cash piles plummet towards negative territory. Amazon’s cash flow is expected to be lower than its capital spending, according to some investment analysts, in 2026.

This suggests that management teams will have either to reduce share buyback programmes, use current cash reserves up or tap bond and equity markets to raise fresh funds to invest in AI. Those companies with existing long-term borrowing are likely to see debt increase. With some analysts forecasting over $660bn of AI investment in 2026, it looks as if the pace of bond issuance is very likely to increase.

Given the concerns about the scale of AI capital investment and the effect of disruptive AI tools on existing computer software business models, it is no surprise that global tech companies have experienced volatility in recent weeks. For now, the payback on this AI investment remains uncertain just as the precise impact of potential disruption from the new AI product offerings from Anthropic on existing business models remains unknown.

We know the world is undergoing a very rapid AI industrialisation and there remains much uncertainty that is creating extreme volatility. AI is expected to increase global GDP and labour productivity. Data-rich sectors with repetitive, pattern-based tasks are most likely to be disrupted. This includes information technology and software together with finance given the rise of robot-advisers and the automation of back-office roles like data processing. The fact that even property companies have seen share price falls would suggest markets fear AI leads to a vast number of job losses amongst white-collar workers almost overnight, leading to a collapse in demand for offices! Yet, if so, what would this mean for the global economy?

Many businesses are already building AI into their product offerings, but only time will tell who the real winners are.

For now, markets have adopted a ‘shoot first and ask questions later’ policy and all we know for certain is that markets hate uncertainty! It may take some time for the dust to settle from the AI explosion!

What have we been watching?

AI-mageddon! In just 14 days, markets are estimated to have wiped over $1 trillion of value from numerous companies on fears that AI (artificial intelligence) could fundamentally reshape existing business models and pressure profitability. This has hit a wide range of sectors, including software, IT consulting, legal services, wealth management, insurance, price comparison, logistics and commercial real estate. In the US, the S&P 500 index, the NASDAQ and the ‘Mag 7’ all ended the week lower. By comparison, European markets posted gains last week, albeit those companies perceived to be at risk from AI disruption saw sizeable share price falls.

Further to last week’s Alpha Bites – TACO, the House of Representatives voted to end US tariffs on Canada as six Republicans voted with the Democrats. However, the vote is largely symbolic, as it still needs to be approved by the Senate. Meanwhile, markets are still awaiting a ruling from the US Supreme Court on the validity of Trump’s IEEPA tariffs. Large numbers of companies are reported to have already put in claims to get the tariff monies back that they have incurred so far to be at the top of the queue if the Supreme Court rules against Trump. He will no doubt fight back should the ruling go against him. However, if the US administration had to return tariff funds, what would this mean for government finances and US Treasury yields?

The global economic tectonic plates continue to shift. Apparently, China’s regulators have called on Chinese banks to scale down their holdings of US Treasury bonds over increasing concerns over the safe-haven status of US debt given the policy changes under Trump. Gold has been one of the beneficiaries of China’s diversification away from US debt. Meanwhile, Beijing confirmed there are talks over a US presidential visit to China in April which has raised hopes that the current trade truce between the US and China might be extended for a further year.

In the UK, economic growth in the final quarter of 2025 was just 0.1%.  The economy flatlined as expected due to budget uncertainty, but December manufacturing and construction were weak. However, business activity in the service sector picked up in January with a PMI reading of 54.0, which provides some grounds for optimism.

In the US, while the AI scare dominated sentiment, there was a mass of economic data releases. Early last week, the data pointed to softer activity as December retail sales were flat and slower fourth quarter economic growth expectations from the Atlanta branch of the Federal Reserve (Fed) saw US Treasury yields move lower. However, the mood improved after a stronger than expected January jobs report, which reinforced confidence that the US economy has carried its solid momentum into 2026. January CPI inflation also came in below expectations, which raised market hopes for more interest rate cuts by the Fed by the end of the year.

In Japan, PM Sanae Takaichi highlighted a ‘responsible pro-active fiscal policy’ approach in addressing bond market concerns. Markets are questioning the PM’s plans to cut the sales tax on food for two years while ramping up spending on defence and strategic industries.

Brent oil was unchanged at $67 as America sent a second aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East as negotiations with Iran continue. Trump said, ‘Either we make a deal, or we have to do something very tough. Like last time.’

Finally, it’s no laughing matter. Young Brits are using so much ‘laughing gas’ recreationally that explosions of small nitrous oxide containers are increasingly shutting down plants that convert waste to energy. Suez, which operates ten energy-from-waste facilities in the UK, had to deal with 7,000 such explosions last year which cost it about £4.9m in business interruption costs.

The post AI-mageddon! first appeared on Alpha Portfolio Management.

President Trump remains as unpredictable as ever, but his recent rantings and actions do give us even more reason for concern.

He has developed a very unwelcome habit of threatening tariffs as a means to bully other countries into political submission. He threatened eight European NATO allies with new tariffs if they did not support his claim to Greenland and has warned Canada it faces an astronomical 100% tariff if it does a trade deal with China! Trump has also threatened Iran, warning of military action unless it halts its nuclear ambitions and stops killing protesters. At least Washington and Tehran are now holding talks.

Trump is never one to miss out on claiming credit when things are going well. He recently stated, ‘America is back’, after US equities hit a fresh high. However, Trump is under pressure at home. His approval/disapproval rating amongst US voters over the handling of his job as US president has fallen to 41%-56% disapprove. US voters now blame Trump for higher prices rather than his predecessor. US betting sites currently show the probability of the Democrats gaining control of the House of Representatives in the 3^rd November midterm elections at almost 78%. If this proves correct, then that would turn Trump into a ‘lame duck’ president, curtailing his ability to control in the final two years of his presidency.

While US equities have hit fresh highs, the US dollar has weakened. At least a major dollar crisis has been averted with Kevin Warsh nominated to replace Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Markets hope that Trump will not hurt the global economy as much as he did in 2025 with his Liberation Day tariffs. Will Trump’s recent tariff antics strengthen the case of those that argue that he overstepped his legal powers last April? The US Supreme Court is still due to give its ruling on the validity of Trump’s IEEPA tariffs later this year.

Trump’s recent military intervention in Venezuela would suggest that TACO – Trump always chickens out – is not always the case. Trump is likely to continue to bully to force a path to negotiation, but in future, will he have to hold back more than before due to opposition within his own party?

For now, he remains a ‘loose cannon’, and investors should be prepared for ongoing market volatility courtesy of Trump’s Social Truth rants!

What have we been watching?

Yet another rollercoaster week for global equities! This time, the turbulence was sparked by a sharp sell-off in computer software companies driven in part by the launch of new artificial intelligence (AI) tools by US disruptor Anthropic. To add to market woes, earnings from Alphabet and Amazon added further pressure and the latter fell as investors became alarmed at the scale of its projected $200bn AI capex programme. As a result, the ‘Mag7’ US tech stocks had their worst week since last April, while the US computer software sector has now fallen in value by 15% over the last two weeks.

Commodities saw equally striking moves, with Brent oil falling on hopes of an agreement between the US and Iran. Silver dropped another 9% despite a strong rebound on Friday, while gold plunged to $4,400 before rallying to near $5,000. It was also a volatile week for cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin fell by 16% over the week, briefly trading at levels first crossed five years ago before recovering somewhat over the weekend.

Despite the volatility in software companies and commodities, the rest of the US equity market had a good week with the equal weighted S&P 500 index, which adjusts for the sheer scale of the Mag7, even hitting a fresh record high, while the old-fashioned concentrated Dow Jones index closed above 50,000 for the first time. It was also a positive week for European equities. Japanese equities also performed well and have surged to a record high this morning following PM Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democrat Party election victory.

President Trump signed an executive order threatening to impose additional tariffs, possibly as much as 25%, on countries that continue to trade with Iran. In recent weeks, Trump has threatened to bomb Iran. Against the backdrop of a US military buildup in the Middle East in response to Iran’s violent repression of nationwide anti-government protests, both the US and Iran have had initial talks. These have been described as a ‘good beginning’, but clearly an atmosphere of mistrust between the two sides needs to be overcome.

Ukrainian President Zelensky says the US wants the war with Russia to end by June, adding that both sides have been invited to the US for talks. Meanwhile, Russia has continued its attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, causing widespread blackouts during freezing conditions.

In the UK, the Bank of England (BoE) kept interest rates on hold at 3.75% but with a narrow 5-4 vote, with four members opting for a 0.25% cut. The accompanying BoE statement said that interest rates were ‘likely to be reduced further.’ However, this encouraging news has been more than countered by the latest political drama, with mounting speculation about PM Sir Keir Starmer’s position in the wake of the Peter Mandelson affair. Markets remain concerned by a potential vote of no confidence or leadership challenge that might see a shift to the left by the government with ramifications for UK borrowing, bond yields and Sterling.

In Europe, there wasn’t too much excitement from the latest meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), which kept its deposit rate at 2% as expected. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that inflation was in a ‘good place’. Markets continue to see the ECB holding interest rates at this level for the remainder of the year.

In the US, growing expectations of interest rate cuts under a new Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair were reinforced by encouraging jobs opening data. Markets responded by increasing the size of cuts expected by the Fed’s December meeting to more than 0.5%.

Over the weekend, PM Sanae Takaichi achieved the largest election win for a single party in Japan in the post- World War II era. While a big victory was expected, the ‘super-majority’ has raised the prospect of even more aggressive economic policy and fiscal plans.

Brent oil drifted back from its recent high of $71 to just over $67 on hopes of an agreement between the US and Iran.

Finally, Trump promised to make the US the world’s cryptocurrency capital. A pro-cryptocurrency administration sent Bitcoin to a record price of $126,000. However, in recent months Bitcoin has fallen by more than 50% from its high and is now below the level it stood when Trump re-entered the White House. Trump has been surprisingly quiet on the issue.

The post TACO – Does Trump always chicken out? first appeared on Alpha Portfolio Management.

Investors continue to assess the growth potential of artificial intelligence or AI.

This has driven the explosive growth in data centre construction and the need for greater electricity generation to power them. However, in a classic  ‘law of unintended consequences’, the surge in demand for high-end bandwidth computer memory chips that AI requires has driven up the price of RAM.

RAM – Random-access memory, is used to store computer code while you use an electronic device. It is a critical component of almost every computer as well as smartphones, smart TVs and medical devices. There are three major manufacturers that control over 90% of the market – Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology. The price of RAM has more than doubled since October 2025, which has been exacerbated by Micron, one of the biggest sellers of RAM, which recently announced that it would stop selling its Crucial RAM brand to focus on AI demand.

Ultimately, this is further bad news for consumers.

In PCs, memory typically accounts for between 15%-20% of the total cost, but current pricing has pushed this up to between 30%-40%. Profit margins for computer consumer goods are not high enough to absorb this scale of cost increase and as a result, sector specialists are warning that consumers could face potential price increases in 2026 for laptop computers and smartphones. The alternative for consumers unwilling to pay higher prices may be to accept a compromise in a lower performing device.

There is no doubt that AI will be transformational, but questions remain about the sheer scale of investment currently underway and the eventual returns on that investment. Similarly, questions remain over the economic impact of AI. The massive investment underway building new AI data centres and nuclear generation to power them is contributing to economic growth. Productivity is expected to receive a boost but against this there will be inevitable job losses.

While AI will help all of us, unfortunately, in the near term, it means we might have to pay more for our electronic goods.

What have we been watching?             

Another rollercoaster week and 2026 is only four weeks old! There was a sell-off in gold and silver and some other commodities after the recent spike to record highs, while Brent oil has fallen sharply this morning on news that Washington is in talks with Tehran. This follows Trump’s earlier comment that the ‘next US attack would be far worse’ than the strikes last June if Iran did not reach a deal.

Never one to miss the opportunity to take the credit, Trump announced that ‘America is back’ as the S&P 500 index hit 7,000 for the first time ever. However, the US Dollar remained weak and there is another partial US government shutdown, albeit not as severe as the record one at the end of 2025.  The US Federal Reserve (Fed) held interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% with Fed Chair Jerome Powell offering little short-term guidance but suggesting that the next interest rate move is still likely to be a cut. Then at the end of last week, there was a steepening of the US bond yield curve on news that Kevin Warsh had secured the nomination for new Fed Chair. He is known to be more ‘hawkish’ on the Fed’s balance sheet than other candidates, which also helped support the US Dollar.

The yen rallied slightly after the recent sell-off as Japan’s finance minister said the government will work with the US on currency responses when necessary but would not be drawn to comment specifically when asked if the authorities conducted currency interventions.

China’s official PMI business activity indicator for January drifted back from 50.1 to 49.3. This was below expectations and is the ninth decline in activity in the last ten months. The service sector PMI dropped from 50.2 to 49.4, reflecting weak post-holiday demand. Meanwhile, there were reports that 20 Chinese provinces were lowering their economic growth targets for 2026, suggesting that we might see Beijing lower its official growth forecast from 5% to 4.5%-5% later this year.

Brent oil surged to almost $71 on fears of a US attack on Iran but has fallen back this morning to $66 on indications of talks between Washington and Iran.

Finally, there is nothing quite like an investment rumour! Amongst the latest is a report that suggests quantum computing may be able to break the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm, which secures Bitcoin wallets, enabling hackers to run off with cryptocurrency! If this proves to be true, then one analyst estimates that between 20%-50% of Bitcoins may be vulnerable to future quantum computing attacks, particularly those held in older wallets.

The post AI RAM raid first appeared on Alpha Portfolio Management.

Gold has just surpassed $5,000 for the first time ever, partly due to geopolitical uncertainty following Trump’s tariff threat over Greenland. Even more notable however, has been the rise in the price of silver, which has already soared in value by over 50% so far this year!

Silver has the highest electrical conductivity among all metals and is therefore used in an increasing number of industries, particularly those involved in the transition to clean energy and AI, such as EVs, photovoltaic cells and semiconductors. Demand for silver solar panels is estimated to have grown by over 60% last year, surpassing the jewellery market as the biggest source of silver demand. This has contributed to the swing in the silver market into a supply deficit.

The recent squeeze in the silver price has also been due to China, which is believed to control around 13% of the world’s silver output. China is the joint second-largest silver producer alongside Peru, both of which are behind leading producer Mexico at about 24%. China has already introduced controls on key commodities such as rare earth minerals but loosened these at the end of 2025 following trade talks with the US. However, from the start of 2026, China has introduced new rules for domestic silver producers. Chinese companies must now secure government licences to export silver, with eligibility limited to state-approved firms producing at least 80 tonnes of silver a year and with $30m of credit facilities. This effectively blocks many small and mid-sized producers from exporting silver.

For now, the US and China have agreed to a trade truce, with China loosening controls on rare earth mineral exports while the US has eased restrictions on some AI chip exports to China. However, China’s tightening of export requirements on silver risks hitting global manufacturers in a number of sectors, from EVs and solar energy to electronics. This could drive up costs and adversely impact production. Tensions between the US and China in 2025 over trade, Taiwan and rare earth minerals have not gone away in 2026. China would also appear to be holding some ‘trump cards’ in any future trade negotiations with the US given its control of key ‘must have’ commodities such as silver and rare earth minerals.

What have we been watching?

Markets breathed a collective sigh of relief last week as Trump’s tariff threats against some European NATO allies were withdrawn. Sentiment improved after Trump said that he would not invade Greenland and he dropped the tariff threat after agreeing to a ‘framework of a future deal’ with NATO’s Secretary General Mark Rutte.  However, markets drifted towards the end of last week as geopolitical concerns continued to cast a shadow and gold climbed above $5,000 for the first time ever as the US dollar continued to weaken.

Over the weekend, Trump threatened Canada with 100% tariffs if it agrees to a trade deal with China. The situation is complicated by the upcoming US Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s IEEPA tariffs, which might constrain his room for manoeuvre. However, no-one knows when this will be for sure, although the market expects this to be anytime from now until the end of June. Meanwhile, the risk of another USA government shutdown at the end of this month has also resurfaced. To add to the uncertainty, the New York branch of the Federal Reserve (Fed) is reported to have carried out a ‘rate check’ on the US Dollar/Japanese Yen on behalf of the US Treasury. The risk of possible intervention saw Japanese 30-year bond yields record their biggest daily increase since 1999, while the Japanese Yen, which had been drifting towards its weakest level since 2024, rebounded sharply.

The first three-way peace talks between Russia, Ukraine and the US ended in Abu Dhabi with no apparent breakthrough as Russia continues to bombard Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure.

In the UK, Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham was blocked by Labour’s national executive committee from contesting the Gorton and Denton by-election. The UK bond market might be relieved, as he has previously said that the UK ‘needs to get beyond being in hock to the bond markets.’ However, while PM Sir Keir Starmer appears to have averted a potential leadership challenge for now, political uncertainty is likely to remain, and much could rest on the outcome of the by-election. These developments over the weekend overshadowed some more encouraging news for Chancellor Rachel Reeves, as UK government borrowing fell sharply last month as a higher tax take and National Insurance contributions outweighed public spending.

In the US, the risk of another government shutdown at the end of this month increased. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer warned that the Democrats will block the latest spending package plan unless Republicans cut Homeland Security spending. This follows the latest tragic events in Minnesota over the weekend. Meanwhile, markets continue to focus on potential candidates to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell when he retires later this year. Rick Reider appears to be the current favourite, and is considered to be more market friendly than the previous frontrunner, Kevin Warsh.  Meanwhile, better than expected US weekly initial jobless claims data saw market expectations for two further US interest rate cuts by the end of 2026 continue to fade.

Brent oil edged up above $65 as a cold spell hit North America.

Finally, given Trump’s desire to own Greenland, what message does this send to the Kremlin and Beijing with their respective ambitions for Ukraine and Taiwan? What does this also mean for the NATO alliance? More alarmingly, is Trump losing the plot? In a message to Norway’s PM, Trump blamed the country for not awarding him the Nobel Peace Prize. In his reply, Norway’s PM had to explain that the peace prize is awarded by an independent committee and not the country!

The post Silverado! first appeared on Alpha Portfolio Management.

In the UK, politicians are aware of the ongoing cost-of-living crisis, which continues to overhang many lower-income households. While the Ukraine invasion energy spike has eased and inflation has slowed, day-to-day prices are still rising. However, it is not just UK households that are facing this challenge. In the US, a perceived ‘affordability crisis’ is making headlines and the Trump administration’s reaction to it could shape economic and political outcomes ahead of the midterm elections in November 2026.

The easiest fix for Trump is lower US interest rates. However, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is being more cautious given the uncertainty from Trump’s tariffs and the earlier US government shutdown, which delayed the publication of key official economic data. In turn, markets have faced uncertainty about the independence of the Fed as Trump seeks to change the composition of the Fed committee. The latest Trump ‘stunt’ is a Department of Justice subpoena issued to the central bank over the renovation of its offices!

Trump has once again raised the prospect of sending American households a $2,000 cheque using the $600bn already collected from his trade tariffs. While this may face political and legal challenges, Trump is still awaiting a ruling from the US Supreme Court on the legality of his IEEPA tariffs. In the meantime, Trump has already eased back on some US consumer goods tariffs, such as kitchen cabinets, furniture and Italian pasta.

Meanwhile, the affordability crisis is most notable in the housing market, where elevated mortgage rates and home prices are making it increasingly difficult to purchase a home. The US housing affordability index is now worse than the summer of 2006, which was the peak before the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. To help, Trump has announced immediate steps to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes. However, new home building has been adversely impacted by Trump’s tighter border controls, as in the past, US residential construction has relied heavily on an undocumented immigration workforce!

US interest rates remain the key factor. The US 10-year Treasury yield, which reflects inflation and economic growth expectations, remains elevated, as do US mortgage rates, which continue to weigh on housing demand. Markets can expect more political twists and turns ahead of the US midterm elections as well as voter gimmicks such as Trump’s proposed 10% interest rate cap on US credit cards. However, markets will remain most concerned about the independence of the Fed.

What have we been watching?

Nervous markets overshadowed by fears of US military intervention in Iran, the DoJ investigation into Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell and Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on eight NATO allies if they do not agree to the US purchase of Greenland! Gold hit a fresh high, but despite the uncertainty, the FTSE 100 also hit a new all-time high.

Over the weekend, President Trump threatened he would impose an initial 10% tariff on eight European NATO members, including the UK, on February 1st, increasing to 25% in June and until a ‘Deal is reached for the complete and total purchase of Greenland.’  Nobody knows for sure how this will play out. Trump has softened his stance on tariffs previously when forced to by a spike in US Treasury yields and when China restricted the export of rare earth materials. The EU is reported to be drawing up €93bn of retaliatory tariffs to give European leaders some leverage in pivotal meetings with Trump at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week.

Many are hoping that Trump will climb down, but he insists he needs Greenland for America to build his ‘Golden Dome’ missile defence system. Europe needs US support and the current spat risks blowing the NATO alliance apart. The Kremlin and Beijing will no doubt be pleased that the Western alliance appears at breaking point given their respective aspirations in Ukraine and Taiwan. However, financial markets may play a big part in the eventual outcome. Trump’s main Achilles Heel is the huge US twin deficits, so he cannot afford to see US Treasury yields rise, as this could impact the American cost of living crisis and midterm presidential election. For now, the uncertainty of additional tariffs is most unwelcome for investors. Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court may provide further opinions on the legality of Trump’s IEEPA tariffs later this week, which could have further implications for the Greenland situation.                        

In the UK, Chancellor Rachel Reeves, no doubt, had a sigh of relief as the November GDP data showed the economy grew by 0.3%, ahead of expectations. Manufacturing activity jumped with the restart of production at Jaguar Land Rover following the cyberattack. While GDP rebounded in November, the growth is still on a soft trend. Meanwhile, a possible inflation headache for the Bank of England as gas prices have jumped by 30% since the start of the year due to a combination of a cold spell, lower gas storage inventories and geopolitical risk. This risks pushing up the energy price cap in April.

In the US, core inflation was slightly below expectation in December, while headline inflation was in line at 2.7%. This, together with reasonable retail sales, lower initial jobless claims data and supportive manufacturing activity surveys from New York and Philadelphia, saw investors dial back expectations of a Fed interest rate cut in the months ahead.   

In Japan, government bond yields climbed to a fresh multi-decade high as fiscal fears and election fever continue.

China’s economy grew by 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, down slightly from the growth seen in the third quarter. Meanwhile, retail sales were up slightly in December but below expectation, while industrial output was stronger than expected. However, China’s property sector remains challenging, with new home prices continuing their downward trend in December.

Brent oil was steady at around $63 despite Trump’s comments on the protests in Iran.

Finally, the ‘Farage Clause.’ Brussels has included a termination clause in PM Sir Keir Starmer’s potential post-Brexit reset deal that would remove Brexit red tape for British food and drink exporters. The ‘Farage Clause’ would see both the UK and EU pay compensation to cover the cost of setting up the necessary border controls and is thought to be an insurance policy by Brussels given the Reform Party’s current lead in polling. Reform has promised to overturn any deal done by the Labour PM and Nigel Farage has said he will not honour any clause. Almost ten years after the Brexit vote, uncertainties remain!

The post America’s cost of living crisis first appeared on Alpha Portfolio Management.